中新网客户端北京1月6日电(记者李金磊)1月6日,央行新年首次全面降准正式落地。此次降准释放长期资金约8000多亿元,如此大的红包,谁会从中受益?

China's new network client beijing january 6(reporter li jinlei) on january 6, the central bank for the first time in the new year full-scale landing. The reduction in the release of long-term funds about 800 billion yuan, such a large red envelope, who will benefit from it?

  1月1日,央行决定于2020年1月6日下调金融机构存款准备金率个百分点(不含财务公司、金融租赁公司和汽车金融公司)。

On January 1, the central bank decided to cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by one percentage point (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto finance companies) on January 6,2020.

  央行表示,此次降准是全面降准,体现了逆周期调节,释放长期资金约8000多亿元,有效增加金融机构支持实体经济的稳定资金来源,降低金融机构支持实体经济的资金成本,直接支持实体经济。

The central bank said the downgrade was a full-scale one, reflecting counter-cyclical regulation, releasing more than 800 billion yuan of long-term funds, effectively increasing the stable source of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy, reducing the cost of funds for financial institutions to support the real economy and directly supporting the real economy.

  这是央行2019年以来的第四次降准。此前,2019年1月份,央行宣布全面降准1个百分点;2019年5月份,央行决定下调服务县域的农村商业银行人民币存款准备金率至农村信用社档次。2019年9月份,央行宣布全面降准个百分点,定向降准1个百分点。

It was the central bank's fourth cut since 2019. Earlier, in January 2019, the central bank announced a full one-point cut; in May 2019, the central bank decided to lower the reserve ratio of RMB deposits of rural commercial banks serving the county to the level of rural credit cooperatives. In September 2019, the central bank announced a full cut of one percentage point and a targeted one-point cut.

  东北证券的研究报告指出,因地方专项债提前发行、春节前移以及缴税等因素,1月份流动性压力要显著高于往年。受2020年春节提前至1月份的影响,居民的大量提现需求也将前移,将会导致M0和库存现金在一月份环比大幅增加,导致银行间流动性趋紧。因此降低准备金率释放流动性是比较合理的选择。

The northeast securities study noted that liquidity pressure in january was significantly higher than in previous years due to early issuance of local special debt, moving forward during the spring festival and paying taxes. Demand for large amounts of cash will also move forward as a result of the Spring Festival's advance to January 2020, leading to a sharp increase in M0 and cash on hand in January, resulting in tighter interbank liquidity. Therefore lower reserve ratio release liquidity is a more reasonable choice.

  央行有关负责人表示,降准支持实体经济发展。此次降准增加了金融机构的资金来源,大银行要下沉服务重心,中小银行要更加聚焦主责主业,都要积极运用降准资金加大对小微、民营企业的支持力度。

The head of the central bank said the downgrade supports the development of the real economy. This cut has increased the source of financial institutions, large banks to sink the focus of service, small and medium-sized banks to focus more on the main responsibility of the main industry, the use of reduced funds to increase support for small and micro, private enterprises.

  据悉,在此次全面降准中,仅在省级行政区域内经营的城市商业银行、服务县域的农村商业银行、农村合作银行、农村信用合作社和村镇银行等中小银行获得长期资金1200多亿元,有利于增强立足当地、回归本源的中小银行服务小微、民营企业的资金实力。

It is reported that in this overall reduction, small and medium-sized banks operating only in the provincial administrative region, rural commercial banks serving the county, rural cooperative banks, rural credit cooperatives and village banks and other small and medium-sized banks have received more than 120 billion yuan in long-term funds, which is conducive to enhancing the capital strength of small and medium-sized banks serving small and small, private enterprises based on local and returning to their origin.

  同时,此次降准降低银行资金成本每年约150亿元,通过银行传导可降低社会融资实际成本,特别是降低小微、民营企业融资成本。

At the same time, the reduction in the cost of bank capital about 15 billion yuan a year, through bank transmission can reduce the actual cost of social financing, especially small and micro, private enterprises financing costs.

  国家金融与发展实验室副主任曾刚表示,此次降准将使得流动性保持合理充裕,降低银行的资金成本,实体经济融资成本有望进一步下降,同时疏通货币政策传导机制,引导资金向小微企业和民营企业倾斜,进而有助于稳增长。

Zeng Gang, deputy director of the National Institute of Finance and Development, said the cut would allow liquidity to remain reasonably plentiful, reduce the cost of capital for banks, and the cost of financing for the real economy is expected to fall further, while easing the monetary policy transmission mechanism to guide funds to small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, thus helping to stabilize growth.

  受降准消息影响,1月2日,2020年首个交易日,A股喜迎开门红。三大股指高开高走,沪指涨逾1%,逼近3100点,创8个月新高;深成指和创业板指一度涨逾2%,双双创18个月新高。

Affected by the news of the cut, January 2,2020, the first trading day, A-share welcome to open the door. The Shanghai index rose more than 1 per cent to close at 3,100, an eight-month high, while the Shenzhen index and the gem were up more than 2 per cent for an 18-month high.

  国泰君安证券认为,此次降准呵护资金面,助力地方债发行,有利于经济企稳,并增强投资者信心,支撑权益市场中枢向上抬升,股票市场延续春季躁动行情概率大。

Guotai Junan Securities believes that the reduction in the care of capital, help local debt issuance, conducive to economic stability, and enhance investor confidence, support equity market center up, the stock market continued spring restless market probability.

  交通银行金融研究中心首席研究员唐建伟认为,新年第一天降准,这会使市场对政策宽松的预期进一步强化,将明显推升市场的风险偏好和做多情绪,资本市场短期行情仍值得期待。

Tang jianwei, lead researcher at the bank of communications's financial research center, said the first day of the new year cut would further strengthen expectations of policy easing and would significantly boost risk appetite and long-term sentiment, and short-term capital markets remain to be expected.

  展望2020年股市,中信证券表示,2020年,A股盈利增速筑底后将稳步回升。在宏观经济决胜、资本市场改革、企业盈利回暖的大环境下,A股有望迎来2-3年的小康牛。

Looking ahead to the stock market in 2020, Citic said A-share earnings growth would pick up steadily after bottoming out in 2020. In the macro-economic decisive, capital market reform, corporate profit recovery environment, A shares are expected to usher in 2-3 years of small Kang Niu.

  降准不是为了房地产,是为了降低企业融资成本。中原地产首席分析师张大伟认为,不过从历史看,只要降准,对于房地产来说肯定是利好,能缓解资金面压力。降准肯定能够缓解房地产企业的资金压力,另外对于购房者按揭来说也能够相对获得平稳的信贷价格。

The reduction is not for real estate, but to reduce the cost of corporate financing. However, from the historical point of view, as long as the cut, for real estate is definitely good, can ease the financial pressure. The cut would certainly ease the financial pressure on real estate companies and provide relatively stable credit prices for homebuyers.

  张大伟说,降准的目的当然不是为了给楼市喘气,但难以避免楼市将有所获益。房地产不稳,经济很难实现稳增长。降准带来的资金平稳有利于房地产市场平稳。2020年市场的确有再现企稳的小阳春的可能性。不过,2020年楼市走势主要看各地的房地产信贷额度与人才政策力度。

Mr. Zhang said the cut was certainly not aimed at gasping for air for the property market, but it was hard to avoid its benefit. Real estate is unstable, and it is difficult for the economy to achieve steady growth. The financial stability brought about by the downgrade is conducive to the stability of the real estate market. The market does have the possibility of reviving a stable little spring in 2020. However, the property market trend in 2020 mainly depends on the local real estate credit line and talent policy strength.

  易居研究院智库中心研究总监严跃进认为,从当前情况看,房地产市场的金融环境有望进一步宽松,尤其是在房地产开发贷款和个人按揭贷款等领域,有助于带动更多银行贷款进入市场,对楼市的影响较为积极。

Yan Yuejin, director of research at the Yi Ju Institute's think tank center, said the financial environment in the real estate market is expected to be further relaxed, especially in areas such as real estate development loans and personal mortgage loans, which will help drive more bank loans into the market and have a more positive impact on the property market.

  严跃进说表示,降准后市场上的流动性有所增加,预计会使LPR(贷款市场报价利率)进一步下调,房贷利率可能会走低,进而降低购房成本。至少可以刺激1月份的房地产成交,这个时候也要警惕价格等出现上升的可能。

Mr. Yan said there had been an increase in liquidity in the market after the cut, which is expected to lead to a further cut in the LPR, the lending market's quoted rate, and a possible lower mortgage rate, which would reduce the cost of home purchases. At least january can stimulate real estate transactions, this time to be alert to prices and other possible rise.

  唐建伟表示,此次降准对房地产市场并无直接影响。当然整体市场流动性宽松后,房地产行业的融资环境或也将有所改善。

Mr Tang said the cut had no direct impact on the property market. Of course, the overall market liquidity loose, the real estate industry financing environment may also improve.

  央行表示,此次降准与春节前的现金投放形成对冲,银行体系流动性总量仍将保持基本稳定,保持灵活适度,并非大水漫灌,体现了科学稳健把握货币政策逆周期调节力度,稳健货币政策取向没有改变。

The central bank said the cut was a hedge against pre-chun festival cash, and that the total liquidity of the banking system would remain basically stable, flexible and moderate, not flooding, reflecting a scientific and prudent grasp of the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, and the prudent monetary policy orientation has not changed.

  民生银行首席研究员温彬表示,此次全面降准坚持稳健货币政策不变,通过释放低成本长期资金置换短期高成本资金,保持市场流动性合理充裕,流动性结构更加优化。

Wen Bin, chief researcher at Minsheng Bank, said that the overall reduction insisted on a sound monetary policy, through the release of low-cost long-term funds to replace short-term high-cost funds, to maintain reasonable liquidity, liquidity structure more optimized.

  唐建伟指出,从央行对于政策工具使用更加科学和稳健的角度预判,一季度降息的可能性比较小。维持2020年央行将降准2-3次,每次百分点,全年中期借贷便利(MLF)操作利率将下调25-30BP的判断。(完)

Tang pointed out that the central bank is less likely to cut interest rates in the first quarter from a more scientific and robust perspective on the use of policy tools. Maintaining the central bank's cut by 2-3 percentage points in 2020, and the mid-term lending facility (MLF) operating rate for the year would cut its judgment by 25-30 BP. (end)


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