未來總有不確定性,但毫無疑問的是,世界的不確定性高于中國的不確定性。僅就2020年來說,如果以美國為觀察視角,它首先將面臨二戰以來社會撕裂度最高的大選之一,世界經濟整體疲軟和貿易戰仍存在陰影,以及股市連創新高后對美國經濟會有什么影響,都不是輕松的話題。另外朝鮮半島形勢面臨新的重大挑戰,大中東地區多個熱點讓美國進退維谷,可以說有多只“灰犀牛”在美國內政外交的地平線上若隱若現。

There is always uncertainty in the future, but there is no doubt that the uncertainty of the world is higher than that of China. For 2020 alone, if the US were to be viewed, it would first face one of the most socially torn general elections since World War II, with the world economy as a whole weak and trade war still in the shadows, and what impact the stock market will have on the U.S. economy after even innovation, not an easy topic. In addition, the korean peninsula is facing major new challenges, the greater middle east, a number of hot spots in the united states, can be said to have a number of \"gray rhinoceros\" looming on the horizon of america's domestic and foreign affairs.

從歐洲的角度看,英國脫歐已經從短痛變成長痛,與此同時,歐洲的更大問題是經濟失去了動力,以中東難民問題和貧富分化為主要痛點的社會矛盾在加劇。歐盟解決問題的能力在弱化,歐洲與美國的關系又愈發冷淡,迷茫仍將貫穿歐洲的2020年,甚至整個20年代。

From a European perspective, Brexit has gone from short-term to long-term pain, while Europe's bigger problem is the loss of momentum in the economy and the growing social tensions that have focused on the Middle East refugee problem and the polarization of the rich and poor. The EU's ability to solve problems is weakening, and Europe's relations with the US are getting colder, with confusion still running through Europe's 2020, or even the entire 1920s.

從日韓的角度看,它們主導2020年和20年代本國發展戰略態勢的能力比一般國家要強,但鑒于全球戰略形勢的高風險,它們的這種能力又是不足的。美國將如何利用日韓?兩國將怎樣處理好它們各自夾在中美之間的復雜關系?韓國還要受半島核問題的巨大牽制。兩國看來都需要求穩,很難成為20年代世界級的大亮點。

From the point of view of Japan and the Republic of Korea, their ability to lead their own development strategy in the 2020s and 1920s is stronger than that of the general countries, but their ability to do so is inadequate given the high risk of the global strategic situation. How will the United States use Japan and South Korea? How will the two countries handle the complex relationship between China and the United States? South Korea is also heavily constrained by the nuclear issue on the peninsula. Both countries seem to need stability, and it is hard to become a world-class bright spot in the 1920s.

最有可能站在20年代發展明星位置上的仍將是新興國家。印度有可能成為其中之一,但印度的問題是發展節奏不夠穩定,國內的民族宗教問題以及公眾對貧富差距的潛在憤怒都構成了這個國家的長期風險。印度2019年的全年GDP增長率將低于中國,2020年的預測也不樂
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