中國經濟總量從不到4000億元增長至接近100萬億元,人均GDP從156美元增至有望超過1萬美元,改革充當了關鍵因子。2019年,在經濟持續調整的形勢下,A股市場走出超預期行情,進一步展現出改革開放的能量。研究機構認為,經濟結構轉型與資本市場改革開放仍將為2020年A股提供重要機遇。

China's economy has grown from less than 400 billion yuan to nearly 100 trillion yuan, and its per capita GDP has risen from 156 US dollars to more than 10,000 US dollars. In 2019, in the situation of sustained economic adjustment, the A-share market out of the market beyond expectations, further show the energy of reform and opening up. Research institutions believe that economic restructuring and capital market reform and opening up will still provide an important opportunity for A-share in 2020.

  回顧2019年,內外復雜形勢下的A股市場走勢讓人喜出望外;展望2020年,經濟增速換擋期延續似乎也擋不住機構對行情更上一層樓的期盼。中信證券稱,A股在經歷了2019年的估值修復后,在2020年將迎來兩至三年的“小康牛”。光大證券亦提出新牛市的觀點,認為A股有望打破制約,開啟過去十年未現的長牛期。

Looking back on 2019, the A-share market in the complex situation inside and outside the market is overjoyed, and looking ahead to 2020, the continuation of the economic growth period seems to be unable to stop the agency's hopes for a better market. CITIC Securities said A-shares would have a \"Kokang Bull\" for two to three years in 2020 after a 2019 valuation fix. Everbright Securities has also proposed a new bull market, arguing that A-shares are expected to break through the constraints and start a long period that hasn't appeared in the past decade.

  海通證券則稱,牛市已經在路上。“2019年1月4日上證指數2440點是第六輪牛市的起點,新一輪牛市開始了。”海通證券提出,牛市有三個階段,盈利和估值戴維斯雙擊的第二階段即主升浪已蓄勢待發,動力一是企業盈利進入回升周期,二是資產配置轉向股市。

Haitong Securities said the bull market was already on the way. \"On January 4,2019, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index of 2440 points was the starting point for the sixth bull market, and a new bull market began.\" Haitong securities, the bull market has three stages, earnings and valuation davis double-click the second stage, that is, the main wave has been ready to go, the driving force is that corporate profits into the recovery cycle, the second is asset allocation to the stock market.

  對于2020年行情空間,中金公司預計滬深300指數前向市盈率將修復至10倍左右;華泰證券預計滬深300估值提升空間在10%以上;太平洋證券認為上證指數將逼近3600點;聯訊證券則預計上證指數有望挑戰3700點區域。

For 2020, CICC expects the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index to be trading at around 10 times the price-to-earnings ratio; Huatai Securities expects the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 to be trading at more than 10 per cent; Pacific Securities expects the Shanghai index to be close to 3,600; and Unicom expects the Shanghai index to challenge the 3700-point region.

  各家邏輯不同,空間和節奏判斷亦有別,但對趨勢的預判卻相當一致。雖處隆冬,機構報告字里行間透露出對春的企盼。

Different logic, space and rhythm are different, but the trend of the prediction is quite consistent. Despite the winter, the agency's hopes for spring were revealed between the lines of its report.

  對中國經濟而言,2019年是名副其實的調整年,這既是過去十年經濟增長換擋降速趨勢的延續,又疊加了外部諸多風險因素的擾動,2019年第三季度GDP增速放緩至6%,為30年來最低。就在這樣一個形勢下,2019年A股市場卻走出幾波行情,在全球范圍內表現出眾。

For China's economy,2019 is a veritable year of adjustment, both a continuation of the shift in economic growth over the past decade and a combination of disturbances from many external risk factors, with GDP growth slowing to 6% in the third quarter of 2019, the lowest in 30 years. In such a situation, the 2019 A-share market out of a few waves of market performance in the world outstanding.

  究其原因,有機構認為,一是各方對經濟下行的看法趨于理性,對經濟出現失速下行的擔憂明顯減輕;二是國際國內挑戰增多,促使各方面政策加大了逆周期調節力度;三是經濟壓力化為迎難而上的動力,在宏觀托底政策發力的同時,促使經濟金融改革在多個方面取得重要進展。

Some organizations believe that, first, the perception of the economic downturn tends to be rational, and the fear of a stall downturn in the economy is apparently reduced; second, the increasing number of international and domestic challenges has led to greater counter-cyclical adjustment of various policies; and third, the economic pressure has been turned into a driving force to meet the difficulties, and at the same time, the economic and financial reform has made important progress in many aspects.

  宏觀政策也適時加大逆周期調節力度,財政、貨幣、產業、就業等政策協同配合,及時有力地穩定市場預期,并奠定了權益資產估值修復相對適宜的流動性環境。

Macro-policy has also strengthened the adjustment of reverse cycle in time, cooperatively with policies such as finance, currency, industry and employment to timely and effectively stabilize market expectations, and laid a relatively suitable liquidity environment for the valuation and restoration of equity assets.

  內外部壓力已轉化為深化改革、擴大開放的動力。在金融領域,突出表現為兩點:一是資本市場深化改革大幅提速;二是金融市場對外開放步伐明顯加快。

Internal and external pressure has been transformed into a driving force for deepening reform and opening wider to the outside world. In the field of finance, there are two outstanding points: first, the deepening of capital market reform has been greatly accelerated; and second, the pace of opening up to the outside world has been significantly accelerated.

  “政策發力逆周期調節與金融深化改革開放,讓人看到了做多A股的理由。”分析人士認為,這可能是2019年A股市場走出超預期行情的關鍵所在。順著這一思路,逆周期調節帶來了經濟企穩、盈利復蘇的希望,深化改革則提供了機制保障和動力支持,進一步增添了2020年行情想象空間。

\"policy efforts countercyclical regulation and financial deepening reform and opening up, people see the reasons for more A-shares. Analysts say this could be the key to moving the A-share market out of excess expectations in 2019. Following this line of thought, counter-cyclical adjustment brings the hope of economic stabilization and profit recovery, while deepening reform provides mechanism guarantee and power support, which further increases the imagination space of 2020 market.

  過去四十余年來,中國經濟總量從不到4000億元增長至接近100萬億元;居民生活水平不斷提高;營商環境持續改善;外匯儲備得到極大充實;資本市場發展壯大。這一切,在相當程度上受益于改革開放。

Over the past four decades or so, China's economy has grown from less than 400 billion yuan to nearly 100 trillion yuan; the living standards of its residents have been continuously improved; the business environment has continued to improve; foreign exchange reserves have been greatly enriched; and the capital market has grown. All this has benefited to a considerable extent from reform and opening up.

  值得一提的是,受益于持續深化改革開放,境外投資者對中國資本市場的關注程度不斷提高。據央行統計,截至2019年9月,外資持有中國股市和債市的市值分別為萬億元和萬億元,占中國股市和債市市值的比重分別為%和%,這一比重看似并不大。但從增量來看,2019年前9月,外資持有中國股市的市值增加了6170億元,增幅高達54%,持有中國債市的市值增加了4720億元,增幅高達28%。

It is worth mentioning that foreign investors are paying more attention to China's capital market because of the sustained deepening of reform and opening up. According to the central bank, as of September 2019, the market value of foreign ownership of China's stock market and bond market was trillion yuan and trillion yuan respectively, accounting for% and% of the market value of China's stock market and bond market respectively, a proportion of which does not appear to be large. But in terms of increments, the market value of foreign holdings in the Chinese stock market rose by 617 billion yuan, or as much as 54 percent, in the first September of 2019, and the market value of holdings in the Chinese bond market increased by 472 billion yuan, or as much as 28 percent.

  “本輪調控更多使用了改革和開放的手段,而不是重走刺激老路,這帶來了更加長遠的希望。”海通證券近期一份海外路演報告稱,外資已經明顯感受到中國市場開放的加快,一些國際大型基金公司表示,已經或者正準備進入中國市場,投資中國是他們未來最重要的戰略之一。

“This round of regulation uses more means of reform and opening up rather than a return to the old road of stimulus, which offers more long-term hope." A recent overseas roadshow report by haitong securities said foreign investors had clearly felt an acceleration in china's market opening up, with some big international fund companies saying they were or were preparing to enter the chinese market and that investing in china was one of their most important strategies for the future.


欢迎转载,转载请注明出处:美高梅官方手机app